Holy Guacamole - Avocados Are At-Risk 🥑

Florida’s avocado growers are in a pickle.

The $35 million-a-year crop is under siege from laurel wilt disease, a vascular infection seeking to create supply havoc.

How we got here: Spread via redbay ambrosia beetles that hide in places like firewood, the crop killer is doing some serious damage. In Miami-Dade county, where most of the Florida crop resides, it’s not hard to spot the fungus overtaking the large evergreen plants.

The evidence?
Toothpicky tubes or granular sawdust piles on the bark
Red or purple discoloration on sagging foliage
Blackish sapwood surface

It ain’t pretty.

The infamous disease even has the public circulating a ‘Save the Guac’ campaign in South Florida. That’s dedication.

So what’s an avocado farmer to do?

Well, the state has looked to the University of Florida and its supercomputer, HiPerGator, for answers.

HiPerGator is known to synthesize astronomical amounts of data for insights. Its resume includes everything from advancing Alzheimer’s research to gauging how the English language is evolving due to social media.

Its next assignment: HiPerGator will analyze satellite-images of avocado crops and implement machine learning to help decision makers determine the best management practices to control the spread of laurel wilt.

The ultimate goal: Build a decision support app that policy makers can use to cess out how subsidies or penalties for disease management would play out in real life. Forecasting if growers make better or worse decisions that help or hurt the spread will be vital.

Bottom line: 80% of Florida avocados are sold to non-Florida customers, lending itself to an annual economic impact of $100 million. HiPerGator and the Sunshine State need to move at hyper-speed to not risk that avocado payday.

Flashback to Friday: We noted in Quick Hits that a Germany chicken farm was preparing to cull 70,000 birds to contain an outbreak of H5N8 avian influenza.

Well, things are escalating...

Dutch authorities culled roughly 190,000 birds after the flu broke on two poultry farms. This comes after a nation-wide bird containment rule was imposed on October 23 after two dead swans were found with H5N8.

Even outside of Europe, in Japan, 850,000 chickens will be culled between two farms, the sixth and seventh cases thus far for the region.

The great migration: As seasons change, it’s no surprise that birds begin to head south. But much to farmers’ dismay, this year those birds are carrying a highly contagious H5N8 strain.

And while it’s expected to have annual losses related to bird flu, this year has been one of the worst.

The European Safety Authority (EFSA) warns that this strain will continue to spread rapidly unless a collaborative approach is taken.

The all-too-familiar lockdown strategy: The UK took a page from its COVID-19 playbook and imposed tough measures to help control the spread.

Protocol now includes:
Restricting access for non-essential people
Removing sources of wild bird food
Ensuring workers are disinfecting footwear and changing clothing

Elsewhere, Belgium is confining birds indoors while France ordered for protective netting at poultry farms to prevent contact with wild birds.

The silver lining: If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s to always have a plan B. With over 300 bird flu cases across Europe, supply chain disruptions are coming but the food chain is better prepared thanks to the pandemic.

The ag world has its eyes on President-Elect Joe Biden.

Fifty-seven days ‘til his expected inauguration, the rumor mill continues to swirl over his Cabinet pick for Secretary of Agriculture.

The USDA’s top dog spot is no small job. A $120 billion budget plus overseeing 100K staff is highly coveted for passionate ag leaders looking to influence the nation’s farming, nutrition, and food policy and programs.

And while plenty of names are still in the hat, two alleged frontrunners are getting the most attention: former Senator Heidi Heitkamp and US Rep Marcia Fudge.

South Dakota’s Heitkamp was the early favorite. Before losing her 2018 reelection bid, her time on the Senate Ag Committee included working on two Farm Bills and advocating for rural issues. Trump even considered her for the job in 2017. Let’s just say, progressive farm and food groups are less than thrilled.

Fudge, from Ohio, looks to be the alt-Heitkamp pick. While hailing from a 100% urban district, her time on the House Ag Committee gives her street cred. She’s an avid defender of SNAP nutrition programs and champions conservation efforts. Plus, she’d be the first female African American to hold the job.

But what about a dark horse candidate?

It’s not completely uncommon for a surprise selection. The role has seen a wide array of governors, academics, and farmers take the reins.

So who else could it be? Names in contention include:

→ Kathleen Merrigan, Former Deputy Secretary of Ag
→ Karen Ross, California’s ag secretary
→ Russell Redding, Pennsylvania’s ag secretary
→ Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Senator & past Presidential hopeful

Where we’re headed: The clock is ticking and more eyes are watching this politically-tense appointment. Biden and his transition team should expect pushback regardless of what direction they go.

QUICK HITS

✅ Former Attorney General Eric Holder will investigate allegations that Tyson Foods managers placed bets on the number of COVID-19 positive plant workers at its Waterloo, Iowa facility.

✅ In partnership with Bayer, blockchain provider BlockApps has launched TraceHarvest Network, a platform allowing participants to share and review data along the food value chain.

✅ Smithfield Foods reached another settlement deal with a coalition of hog farm neighbors who sued the pork giant over complaints of smell, flies, and increased truck traffic at North Carolina sites.

✅ Vietnam-based startup Cricket One raised a pre-Series A round in hopes of becoming the leader in insect-based protein-rich powders and oils for the food ingredient industry.

✅ Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving survey revealed the cost of the traditional feast for ten was down $2.01, to $46.90. Less than $5 per person. 🍗