Dairy Trade Drama 🐄

The U.S. dairy industry isn’t feelin’ the love these days from its neighbor to the North.

Dairy tariff-rate quotas - or TRQs - are the center of contention. Under the USMCA, which replaced NAFTA in July, Canada had pinky-promised to grow its TRQs. By raising that threshold, more U.S. dairy imports could flow into Canada without the bank-busting tariff slap.

And this was a big deal for the U.S. For years, dairy groups had complained that Canada was not so neighborly when it came to accepting imports. Dairy issues were even the last topic resolved before signatures on the USMCA were inked. So naturally, drama has ensued.

The rift: Canada allocated a chunk of those TRQs to its domestic processors. And those same processors will probably bypass importing high-value, retail-ready U.S. products and instead opt to pay pennies for lower-value milk goods.

AKA: The U.S. isn’t getting as much bang for its trade-loving buck as it would like.

U.S. politicians, trade groups, and dairy associations are up in arms.

Even former/future Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack got in a punch. As he wraps up leading the U.S. Dairy Export Council, he noted, “We knew from day one that enforcement would be key to bringing the intended benefits home to America’s dairy industry.”

Canada’s response: We’re not breaking the rules, eh.

But that’s not stopping the U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer from revisiting the fine print. Starting last week, analysis of the TRQ obligations began to double check that Canada was doing its part.

Where this goes: Everyone has played nice in the newly-minted USMCA pact so far. Will this dairy drama cause the first big tussle? Stay tuned.

European Union: Britain Says Go Fish...Somewhere Else

Britain will lock down its exclusive economic fishing waters to its EU step-siblings if no Brexit trade deal is reached by year-end. The nautical ‘gates’ will cut off non-British commercial fishermen who wade within 200 miles of the shore.

And they mean business. The Ministry of Defense has plans to position four Royal Navy vessels to protect fishing rights and inspect any EU violators.

Brazil: La Nina Not Playing Nice

Commodity crops continue to feel the sting from a drought made worse by recent La Nina weather effects. Shaky soybean estimates from South America have global market ripple effects and Arabica coffee futures spiked on wind that a 34% drop in yield is possible.

But don’t give up hope. Forecasts show rain is on the way. And some soybean experts predict it could still be a record crop as December and January rains will make or break the season.

Japan: Bird Flu Takes Flight

Noting its worst bird flu outbreak since 2016, Japan is on poultry lockdown. 20% of the country’s prefectures, or regions, are now affected and officials have ordered a disinfection protocol plus new netting fixtures to limit wild bird contact.

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Last week in California, water became a commodity crop.

And like many resources with a supply- and demand-strained relationship, water found its way to a futures contract.

Investors across the globe now have access to the CME exchange where they can buy and sell the right to purchase water at a particular price tied back to the state’s $1.1 billion water spot market.

The Farmer Effect: Producers who get in on the bidding will have the chance to protect their water costs against price jumps and lock in some stability. For a state that uses 4x more water than any other state in the country, producers won’t be passive in their attempts to protect their pocketbooks.

QUICK HITS

✅ Syngenta and Sound Agriculture will attempt to commercialize the Source bio-inspired product in China to help reduce nitrogen applications up to 7.5 million metric tons annually.

✅ Danone North America and Full Harvest are launching the first dairy product, Two Good ‘Good Save’ yogurt, in the rescued foods category with lemons that would otherwise be wasted due to overproduction or cosmetic blemishes.

✅ Tractor Zoom raised $3 million to amp up its pricing and analytics platform, Iron Comps, to bring customers more price transparency on the used farm equipment market.