Good morning.
Welcome to September—or more importantly, welcome to National Chicken Month.
The poultry industry hatches more than 2.1M jobs, accounts for $121.1B in wages, and has a total economic impact of more than $576.5B. That's nothing to bawk at.
So whether you're dreaming of Chick-fil-A, KFC, or some McNuggets, we hope you celebrate accordingly this month (after the scroll, of course).
Stories:
- High Port-ential: Ukraine Gets Shipping
- Brazillions of Beans
- Beef Market Looking Beefy… for Now
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High Port-ential: Ukraine Gets Shipping
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Ukraine grain exports are back in a big way—their ships are buoying global supply.
Recent grain exports from the major agricultural nation have topped 1M metric tons, with 44 ships sent to 15 nations.
How does a country at war get their ships out of port unharmed? Turkey. (Not the meat: the nation.)
Talkin’ Turkey: Thanks to negotiations mediated by Turkey and the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine have reached an agreement.
The outcome? Ships can leave Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
Ukraine is too strong of a player in global food supply to be kept on the bench—they’re a world leader in grains, oilseeds, and vegetable oils.
Soundbite: "Ukraine was, is, and will be among the guarantors of global food security," said Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Friday speech, hailing the recent success.
According to Reuters, Ukraine’s shipments of ag exports could rise to upwards of 6M tons in October as its seaports reopen. Now that’s what we’re talking a-boat!
Problems with production: It’s knot all good news, as Ukraine’s expected grain harvest is down to 50M tons from 86M in 2021. Add in low expected U.S. corn production paired with European droughts, and global supply could be in for a wild ride.
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→ Beefing up organic. The USDA will invest $300M into better support for organic farmers, including building a new Transition to Organic Partnership Program, providing direct farmer assistance, and developing new markets.
→ Flu in the flocks. Avian influenza is back, this time in a 34,800-bird broiler breeder flock and a 161,000-bird commercial turkey flock—both in California.
→ Pivoting toward the seed. The first on-seed application of microbial nitrogen has been developed, thanks to PivotBio, with the hope it will improve season-long potential of crops like corn, sorghum, and spring wheat.
→ Any volunteers? At the Farm Progress Show in Iowa, Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack said the U.S. strategy of relying on voluntary efforts from farmers to reduce their environmental impact is better than the EU’s stricter rules.
→ Robot rosé? California wine country has started using artificial intelligence, including wireless soil sensors that can help save water, data collection via drones, and predictive modeling AI.
→ Soil surveillance. Nitrogen leaching can decrease farmers’ yields and have a negative environmental impact —but CropX has launched a new nitrogen leaching monitoring tool that could be easier than traditional lab testing.
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Nungning20 | Getty Images
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Brazil is set to plant soy many acres this year—enough to set a record.
Tell us mais: As Brazilian farmers get set to plant this month, the National Supply Company (CONAB) expects production of more than 300M tons of soybeans, corn, cotton, rice, and wheat.
That’s a 14% jump compared to last season and the largest predicted harvest in Brazil’s history.
Row, row, row your beans: A major factor in the uptick has been Brazil’s conversion of pastureland to soybean rows, bumping up the total acreage available for planting.
So much so that they’re growing the number of acres of beans by 3.5%, which will increase the country’s planted area to more than 100M acres. That’s the first time soybean acreage has ever reached that milestone.
Bushels o’ beans: Yields are expected to be up for Brazilian soybean farmers this crop season, too, to the tune of 17%. Even with higher production costs, farmers in Brazil will benefit from high commodity prices, robust global demand, and a favorable exchange rate in the 2022-2023 crop year.
They’re saying exports are forecasted to increase 22% from this season’s shipments. Lots o’ beans at sea.
There’s a potential ‘but’: Some experts predict that even with increased planted soybean acres, weather and low soil fertility of those previous pastureland acres will challenge yields. Time, and what precipitation the country gets, will tell.
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In honor of National Chicken Month… whose fast food nuggets are the best?! That question could likely spark a pretty intense argument among friends. But the website "Eat This, Not That!" helped us out and released its top 5. Can you rank them in the same order they did?
- Burger King
- Chick-fil-A
- McDonald’s
- Shake Shack
- Wendy’s
Answer at the bottom of the email.
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Beef Market Looking Beefy...for Now |
The Rabobank Q3 outlook shows the global beef market will stay beefy in the third quarter, but change could be on the way. Consumer choices (that’s you) will determine what comes next.
Beef retail prices mostly stayed on the up and up, or remained the same in Q2. The Q2 prices were only slightly above Q1 but were 5 to 11% higher than year-ago levels.
The landscape: Rising inflation and slowing economies are causing a decline in consumer confidence. But supply channel movements and price points show ground beef and quick-service restaurants might get their time in the spotlight.
What’s at steak: The decline in consumer confidence is good news for trimmings demand as consumers choose lower priced cuts in the second half of 2022.
Cattle markets are still looking a-okay because of strong demand in the U.S. and seasonal conditions in places like Brazil and Australia. U.S. drought and strong demand are causing high slaughter volumes and more cullings and will impact production in the back half of 2022.
How this mooves forward: If the U.S. cow cull declines, lean trimmings could see a price upside. New Zealand and Australia could be poised to export more to the U.S., while Brazil has already filled its quota for 2022.
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1. Shake Shack, 2. Chick-fil-A, 3. Wendy’s, 4. McDonald’s, and 5. Burger King. Disagree? Check out their reasoning here.
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Written & Edited by Aaron Dunajeski, Sheridan Wimmer, Rachel Robinson, Amelia VanLandegen, Ashley Scoby, and Travis Martin
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