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APRIL 14, 2023

TOGETHER WITH:

Good morning.

Think fast: what type of stolen ag products would you traffic if you were (theoretically, of course) part of a crime ring? 

If you answered dairy products, well, there's a hole in the market in South Florida. 

Police in Miami arrested six people over a theft ring that allegedly stole almost $1M of milk products from Island Dairy distributor. 

"Operation Got Milk" (no, really, that's what the police called it) uncovered the ring—spoiling their fun.

Stories:

• Cattle Prices Continue Climbing
• AMplifying the Fight for AM Radio
• The Cotton Boll: Drought Impacts Cotton Acres

LIVESTOCK

dhughes9 from Getty Images Signature

Moooove over, cattle price records, 2023 is here to break all the rules.

Negotiated cash cattle prices went soaring across multiple categories this week, and experts predict more of the same going forward.

By the numbers:

• Friday saw steers at $174.62 and heifers at $175.38. The previous record was $171.38, set in November 2014.
• Monday’s choice boxed beef hit $292.94/cwt, up $1.96 from the previous week, setting a historic seasonal price.
• Futures prices had April live cattle up 30 cents to $171.375, while June went up 60 cents to $163.70.

Where it goes from here: With falling feedlot inventories it stands to reason that fed cattle prices will continue climbing through the summer. It’s a break from traditional markets, which typically see a seasonal decline before the fall bump.

Widespread drought across much of the country led to a heavy sell-off before the winter months. Consequently, the U.S. cow herd is at its lowest number since 1962. It dropped 3.6% since last year—also indicating higher cattle prices moving forward.

Keeping up with inflation? Of course, ranch inputs have also been on the rise, setting some of their own records.

• Nationwide farmland prices rose 12.4%, the highest since 1970.
• Fertilizer is up 96% from 2020.
• Energy and feed prices both went sky-high last year, with feed rising 17% in 2022, largely due to drought.

The USDA’s Farm Sector Income Forecast expects a 4.1% production expense increase in 2023, leading to a projected net farm income decrease of 18.2%.

→ Corn Belt pain. If Mexico’s GMO corn ban eventually goes into effect, a swath of Midwestern states, including Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, and Louisiana, would be hit the hardest economically. 

→ Bird flu still flying. The highly pathogenic avian influenza is still a problem, and the USDA estimates the disease will eventually cost ag $670M, including lost farm income, culling, and facility decontamination. 

→ Lock it in. With diesel prices projected to go back up by the end of 2023, experts are advising farmers to take care of spring and summer fuel inventory now. 

→ Dollars for degrees. The Zoetis Foundation is giving $5.3M for farmer and veterinarian education in 15 countries; the money will go toward debt relief, education, diversity and inclusion, and mental wellness resources. 

→ Sweet relief. Although fertilizer prices are still historically high, they’ve dropped between 45-60% from a year ago, as farmers begin the planting season. 

→ Big flames in Texas. Smoke could be seen from about 80 miles away after an enormous fire and potential explosion at a dairy outside of Dimmitt, Texas. 

RADIO

MurilloM from Getty Images

We interrupt your regular programming for this important ——— beeeeeeeeep. 

Several vehicle manufacturers are scrapping AM radio receivers in their newest models.

And some folks are fit to be tied.

The deets: Electric vehicle (EV) models continue to be developed, and the EPA is even promoting a transition to EVs in an effort to meet its newest emissions regulations.

But there’s a communications issue… literally. The electric motors tend to interfere with AM radio signals, and thus, some manufacturers are simply cutting out the frequency option.

That was "okay" when Tesla dumped AM back in 2018, but when Ford announced last week it would exclude AM from "most new and updated vehicles" (EV or not), well… stuff hit the fan.

AMazing: According to Nielsen, nearly 50M Americans listen to AM radio, and as the platform for FEMA’s National Public Warning System, it’s kind of… um… important.

Even FCC Commissioner Nathan Simington spoke out about the importance of keeping the AM radio option in vehicles, and notably, he pointed to a specific demographic:

Farmers.

"Seventy-five percent of farmers listen to the radio five days per week," he noted. And a survey conducted by the National Association of Farm Broadcasting echoed those statistics.

Touting the "critical safety benefits of AM radio," Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts is leading the pro-AM charge on Capitol Hill with this nugget:

"AM radio is irreplaceable."

Where this goes: AM proponents say stations need to unite. So if you listen to ag radio while planting this spring, maybe shoot this survey from the National Alliance of State Broadcast Associations over to your local station. It’s due TODAY.

SPONSORED BY GRAIN MARKET INSIDER

There’s no crystal ball for the grain market. But we believe this is pretty close.

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So easy, you can make marketing decisions right from the field.

Grain Market Insider is priced at a low $39.99/month. Because we believe every farmer deserves the insight and confidence to maximize their livelihood.

But that price is only after a free 60-day trial — exclusively available to Magnetic Ag subscribers. Sign up here.

Disclaimer: Grain Market Insider is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

It’s National Pecan Day! The pecan tree is the only major nut tree native to North America. The United States produces ___% of the world’s pecans. 

1. 25%
2. 33%
3. 75%
4. 97%

Answer at the bottom of the email.

COMMODITIES

GIPHY

Cotton is in its dry era.

Look What Drought Made Me Do: It’d sure be nice if we Swiftly got some rain. Farmers in the Plains know this situation All Too Well and are making their planting decisions based on drought and input costs—even selecting more drought-resistant crops.

USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report says 2023 cotton acreage will drop 18% from last year to 11.3M acres. Last year, there were 13.7M acres planted.

Even the drought is bigger in Texas: In a survey by the National Cotton Council, Texas is expecting the biggest hit to cotton acres: a 21.2% drop. Farmers in Texas had a rough 2022 year in cotton since 74% of their acres were abandoned because of drought, and it seems that trend will continue into 2023.

Cruel Summer: Weather forecasts expect a weakening La Niña, which could help with the drought conditions. However, and we hate to say it, some reports don’t see relief happening until July—way too late to get cotton acres planted.

You got that white T-shirt: This could mean higher prices on all things cotton, including Cardigans.

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C. 75%. Learn more about pecans here. 

Written & Edited by Jen Hill, Kevin Cross, Sheridan Wimmer, Amelia VanLandegen, and Ashley Scoby

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